What follows when a company changes.

Hunch Lab studies which events at Belgian companies predict others. The data comes from public registers covering 1,141,228 companies and is retested every week. Results without a link are published too.

1,141,228 companies1,064,469 dated events363 links tested44 confirmedData up to September 2026

Featured

Featured·Public contracts and support

Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to receive de minimis aid

Of the 4,661 companies with a large public contract, 33.0% also had de minimis aid between January and September 2026, against 21.4% among similar companies.

1.5×Confirmed4,661 companies
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.

All findings

77 completed findings. 287 tests are still running and will appear once there are enough cases.

77 findingsRecommended
FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
December is the busiest month for corporate planning applicationsBuilding and operating11.4% December8.3%11.4%Pattern Companies whose registered address is struck off are almost four times as likely to move their registered officeFinancial distress6.0%1.6%3.7×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.6 times as likely to open a site elsewherePublic contracts and support4.5%2.8%1.6×Confirmed After a capital change, companies are 1.6 times as likely to change directorsBoard and capital24.7%15.8%1.6×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to receive de minimis aidPublic contracts and support33.0%21.4%1.5×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.4 times as likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating22.4%16.6%1.4×Confirmed Companies that change directors are almost three times as likely to be dissolved or put into liquidation NewBoard and capital0.99%0.39%2.6×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are 1.8 times as likely to amend their articles of association NewBoard and capital1.18%0.66%1.8×Confirmed Companies that change directors are 1.8 times as likely to amend their articles of association NewBoard and capital1.05%0.59%1.8×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are less likely to grow their workforce strongly NewBuilding and operating3.5%6.3%0.55×Provisional Newly incorporated companies are less likely to apply for a renovation or extension permit NewFormation and structure0.23%0.79%0.30×Less often Companies that change their legal form are less likely to go through a merger or demerger NewFormation and structure0.63%1.97%0.32×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to file another type of planning application NewFormation and structure0.32%0.83%0.39×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to apply for a new-build permit NewFormation and structure0.51%1.09%0.46×Less often Companies whose registered address is struck off are more than nine times as likely to go bankruptFinancial distress4.5%0.5%9.1×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are more than eight times as likely to change the purpose in their articlesFormation and structure7.0%0.8%8.4×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are more than six times as likely to have their registered address struck offBoard and capital6.5%1.0%6.2×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are more than five times as likely to change their nameFormation and structure5.1%1.0%5.2×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are more than four times as likely to apply for a new-build permitBuilding and operating17.7%4.3%4.1×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are four times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating8.5%2.1%4.0×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are four times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating12.3%3.1%4.0×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are almost four times as likely to apply to buildBuilding and operating14.8%4.0%3.7×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are almost four times as likely to change their legal formFormation and structure1.99%0.55%3.6×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than three times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating9.7%2.8%3.5×Confirmed Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are more than three times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating11.3%3.3%3.4×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating4.8%1.5%3.3×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating6.5%2.0%3.2×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are three times as likely to apply for an environmental permitBuilding and operating19.4%6.6%2.9×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are three times as likely to go bankruptBoard and capital1.47%0.50%2.9×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are three times as likely to apply for an environmental permitBuilding and operating21.9%7.5%2.9×Confirmed Companies that move their registered office are almost three times as likely to be dissolved or put into liquidationLocation1.35%0.50%2.7×Confirmed Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are almost three times as likely to apply for a new-build permitBuilding and operating11.3%4.3%2.6×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are almost three times as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating3.9%1.5%2.6×Confirmed Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are more than twice as likely to apply for an environmental permitBuilding and operating12.4%5.3%2.3×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are more than twice as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating4.9%2.2%2.3×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than twice as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating3.7%1.7%2.2×Confirmed Newly incorporated companies are more than twice as likely to be dissolved or put into liquidationFormation and structure0.40%0.19%2.1×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to change their share capitalFormation and structure6.2%3.0%2.1×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to open a site in another municipalityFormation and structure3.5%1.7%2.1×Confirmed Companies that move their registered office are twice as likely to go bankruptLocation0.83%0.41%2.0×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.9 times as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating4.6%2.4%1.9×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are 1.8 times as likely to open a new establishmentFormation and structure3.9%2.2%1.8×Confirmed Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are 1.6 times as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating3.3%2.1%1.6×Confirmed Companies that change directors are 1.6 times as likely to change their share capitalBoard and capital3.7%2.3%1.6×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.5 times as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating2.4%1.6%1.5×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to apply for an environmental permitPublic contracts and support12.0%8.0%1.5×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to open a new establishmentPublic contracts and support5.1%3.4%1.5×Confirmed Companies that change directors are 1.4 times as likely to go bankruptBoard and capital0.56%0.39%1.4×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are 1.4 times as likely to see a board changeFormation and structure30.6%21.4%1.4×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.4 times as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating3.2%2.3%1.4×Confirmed Companies that receive a growth grant are more than twice as likely to grow their workforce stronglyPublic contracts and support14.5%6.8%2.1×Provisional After an innovation grant, companies are twice as likely to grow their workforce stronglyPublic contracts and support12.6%6.3%2.0×Provisional Companies that receive an export grant are 1.5 times as likely to grow their workforce stronglyPublic contracts and support9.6%6.4%1.5×Provisional Companies that receive a wage subsidy are less likely to see their workforce shrink sharplyPublic contracts and support3.5%4.8%0.73×Provisional Companies that are dissolved or put into liquidation are less likely to see a board changeFinancial distress0.3%5.8%0.05×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to move their registered officeFormation and structure0.3%4.0%0.07×Less often Companies that move their registered office are less likely to go through a merger or demergerLocation0.33%1.48%0.22×Less often Companies that change directors are less likely to move their registered officeBoard and capital1.1%3.1%0.36×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to change their legal formFormation and structure0.06%0.16%0.36×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to have their registered address struck offFormation and structure0.72%1.66%0.43×Less often Companies that change their legal form are less likely to move their registered officeFormation and structure1.2%2.4%0.52×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to see a board changeFormation and structure5.6%10.6%0.52×Less often Companies that change the purpose in their articles are less likely to move their registered officeFormation and structure1.3%2.2%0.56×Less often Companies that receive a training or advisory grant are no more likely to grow their workforce stronglyPublic contracts and support7.6%6.1%1.3×No link Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating18.3%14.6%1.3×Refuted Companies that change their share capital are more likely to receive de minimis aidBoard and capital7.7%9.4%0.82×Refuted Newly incorporated companies are more likely to receive de minimis aidFormation and structure7.2%6.2%1.2×Refuted Companies involved in a merger or demerger are no more likely to receive de minimis aidFormation and structure13.9%12.0%1.2×No link Newly incorporated companies are no more likely to open a site in another municipalityFormation and structure1.11%0.98%1.1×No link Winning a large public contract leads to more hiringPublic contracts and support7.7%7.0%1.1×Refuted Companies that move their registered office are no more likely to change their nameLocation0.86%0.79%1.1×No link Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are no more likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating11.9%11.0%1.1×No link Companies that apply for a new-build permit are no more likely to see a board changeBuilding and operating19.5%18.2%1.1×No link Companies that apply for an environmental permit are no more likely to grow their workforce stronglyBuilding and operating6.2%6.0%1.0×No link Companies that change directors are no more likely to change their nameBoard and capital1.01%1.00%1.0×No link Companies that move their registered office are no more likely to change the purpose in their articlesLocation0.78%0.77%1.0×No link Companies that file another type of planning application are no more likely to see a board changeBuilding and operating18.0%18.0%1.0×No link

Refuted hypotheses

Hypotheses the data contradict.

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Winning a large public contract leads to more hiringPublic contracts and support7.7%7.0%1.1×Refuted Newly incorporated companies are more likely to receive de minimis aidFormation and structure7.2%6.2%1.2×Refuted Companies that change their share capital are more likely to receive de minimis aidBoard and capital7.7%9.4%0.82×Refuted Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating18.3%14.6%1.3×Refuted
All tests without a link

Method

Full methodology

  1. Cohort studies

    Every company with an event in a fixed period is followed. The outcome is only counted after that period.

  2. Similar companies

    Each group is compared with companies from the same sector, size class and age class that were active in the same period.

  3. Two independent measurements

    A link only counts if it shows up again among other companies in a later period. For planning applications this is repeated for every year since 2018.

  4. Retested every week

    Everything is recalculated every week with the latest data. Whatever no longer holds is removed.

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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