Building and operating·FindingConfirmed

Companies that apply for a new-build permit are three times as likely to apply for an environmental permit

Of the 5,152 companies with a new-build permit application, 21.9% also had an environmental permit application within nine months, against 7.5% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group. Measured year by year, the link held in every year since 2018.

Environmental permit within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 5,152 companies

After a new-build permit application21.9%

Similar companies7.5%

2.9×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 2.7× to 3.1×
Companies: 5,152
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026	24.0%	8.2%	2.9×
Measurement 2	event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	19.9%	6.9%	2.9×

Also measured year by year, since 2018

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
2018	application in 2018, outcome the following year	23.8%	4.7%	5.1×
2019	application in 2019, outcome the following year	22.9%	4.4%	5.2×
2020	application in 2020, outcome the following year	23.1%	4.2%	5.5×
2021	application in 2021, outcome the following year	21.7%	3.9%	5.5×
2022	application in 2022, outcome the following year	22.8%	3.9%	5.9×
2023	application in 2023, outcome the following year	24.0%	4.0%	6.0×
2024	application in 2024, outcome the following year	24.2%	4.4%	5.5×

When does it happen?

Cumulative share by month after the first event. Half of the cases in the first year occur within 5 months.

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Real estate	1,065	18.1%	4.6%	3.9×
Construction	716	26.5%	10.2%	2.6×
Agriculture and fishing	483	29.2%	22.8%	1.3×
Manufacturing	451	28.2%	10.0%	2.8×
Professional services	415	15.7%	1.2%	13×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	2,419	14.2%	4.6%	3.1×
Employer, headcount unknown	1,642	23.9%	8.5%	2.8×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

New-build permit application531 a month on average

Environmental permit884 a month on average

More on new-build permit application

6 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that apply for a new-build permit are four times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating12.3%3.1%4.0×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating6.5%2.0%3.2×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.5 times as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating2.4%1.6%1.5×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.4 times as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating3.2%2.3%1.4×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating18.3%14.6%1.3×Refuted

All findings on new-build permit application

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 1,127 cases, 388 expected
Factor (95% interval): 2.9× (2.7× to 3.1×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 4.2× (4.0× to 4.5×); all companies 5.4× (5.1× to 5.7×)
Absolute difference: 14.3 percentage points; following 7 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 67,044, economically active 214,185, all 671,780 companies
Strata: 88 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that apply for a new-build permit are three times as likely to apply for an environmental permit. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-nieuwbouw-vg-exploitatie

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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