Building and operating·FindingConfirmed

Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are 1.6 times as likely to open a new establishment

Of the 2,901 companies with a renovation or extension permit application, 3.3% also had a new establishment between October 2025 and September 2026, against 2.1% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group.

New establishment between October 2025 and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 2,901 companies

1.6×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval
1.3× to 2.0×
Companies
2,901
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 20263.1%2.0%1.6×
Measurement 2event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 20263.6%2.1%1.7×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

SizeCompaniesWith the eventComparableFactor
No staff1,5940.88%0.48%1.8×
Employer, headcount unknown8725.7%3.7%1.6×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Renovation or extension permit257 a month on average
New establishment764 a month on average

More on renovation or extension permit

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are more than three times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating11.3%3.3%3.4×Confirmed Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are almost three times as likely to apply for a new-build permitBuilding and operating11.3%4.3%2.6×Confirmed Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are more than twice as likely to apply for an environmental permitBuilding and operating12.4%5.3%2.3×Confirmed Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are no more likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating11.9%11.0%1.1×No link

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026; event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
97 cases, 60 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.6× (1.3× to 2.0×)
Multiple testing
q = 0.012 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 2.3× (1.9× to 2.8×); all companies 2.5× (2.0× to 3.0×)
Absolute difference
1.3 percentage points; following 78 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 61,081, economically active 193,774, all 671,780 companies
Strata
82 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that apply for a renovation or extension permit are 1.6 times as likely to open a new establishment. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-uitbreiding-nieuwe-vestiging

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

About the Lab and the data →What Hunch does →