Formation and structure·FindingConfirmed

Companies involved in a merger or demerger are 1.8 times as likely to open a new establishment

Of the 2,742 companies with a merger or demerger, 3.9% also had a new establishment between October 2025 and September 2026, against 2.2% among similar companies.

New establishment between October 2025 and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 2,742 companies

1.8×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval
1.5× to 2.1×
Companies
2,742
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Mar–May 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 20264.4%2.1%2.1×
Measurement 2event Jun–Aug 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 20263.5%2.3%1.5×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

SectorCompaniesWith the eventSimilarFactor
Wholesale and retail4424.3%4.3%1.00×
Professional services4044.2%1.4%3.1×
Financial services2811.4%2.1%0.69×
Manufacturing2375.5%2.5%2.2×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

SizeCompaniesWith the eventComparableFactor
No staff1,3080.61%0.40%1.5×
Employer, headcount unknown6615.9%3.7%1.6×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Merger or demerger672 a month on average
New establishment764 a month on average

More on merger or demerger

7 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies involved in a merger or demerger are more than eight times as likely to change the purpose in their articlesFormation and structure7.0%0.8%8.4×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are more than five times as likely to change their nameFormation and structure5.1%1.0%5.2×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are almost four times as likely to change their legal formFormation and structure1.99%0.55%3.6×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to change their share capitalFormation and structure6.2%3.0%2.1×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to open a site in another municipalityFormation and structure3.5%1.7%2.1×Confirmed
All findings on merger or demerger

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Mar–May 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026; event Jun–Aug 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
107 cases, 60 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.8× (1.5× to 2.1×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p = 0.0043
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 2.6× (2.1× to 3.1×); all companies 2.7× (2.2× to 3.2×)
Absolute difference
1.7 percentage points; following 59 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 58,672, economically active 320,938, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
79 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies involved in a merger or demerger are 1.8 times as likely to open a new establishment. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/herstructurering-nieuwe-vestiging

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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