Refuted hypotheses·HypothesisRefuted

Newly incorporated companies are more likely to receive de minimis aid

Companies with incorporation were no more likely to have de minimis aid between January and September 2026 than similar companies: 7.2% against 6.2%. Both measurements rule out a link of 1.4 times or more.

De minimis aid between January and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 42,714 companies

1.2×

No meaningful difference from similar companies.

95% interval
1.1× to 1.2×
Companies
42,714
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 20266.7%6.5%1.0×
Measurement 2event Jul–Nov 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 20267.7%5.9%1.3×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Incorporation4,779 a month on average
De minimis aid12,126 a month on average

More on incorporation

9 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Newly incorporated companies are less likely to move their registered officeFormation and structure0.3%4.0%0.07×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to apply for a renovation or extension permit NewFormation and structure0.23%0.79%0.30×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to change their legal formFormation and structure0.06%0.16%0.36×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to file another type of planning application NewFormation and structure0.32%0.83%0.39×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to have their registered address struck offFormation and structure0.72%1.66%0.43×Less often
All findings on incorporation

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026; event Jul–Nov 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
3,078 cases, 2,644 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.2× (1.1× to 1.2×)
Multiple testing
q = 0.34 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 1.2× (1.1× to 1.2×); all companies 1.4× (1.3× to 1.4×)
Absolute difference
1.0 percentage points; following 98 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 97,800, economically active 355,869, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
120 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Newly incorporated companies are more likely to receive de minimis aid. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/oprichting-deminimis-steun-ontvangen

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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