Refuted hypotheses·HypothesisRefuted

Companies that change their share capital are more likely to receive de minimis aid

Companies with a capital change were no more likely to have de minimis aid between January and September 2026 than similar companies: 7.7% against 9.4%. Both measurements rule out a link of 1.4 times or more.

De minimis aid between January and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 10,947 companies

After a capital change7.7%

Similar companies9.4%

0.82×

No meaningful difference from similar companies.

95% interval: 0.76× to 0.87×
Companies: 10,947
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Mar–Jul 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	7.5%	9.1%	0.82×
Measurement 2	event Aug–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Capital change1,225 a month on average

De minimis aid12,126 a month on average

More on capital change

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that change their share capital are more than six times as likely to have their registered address struck offBoard and capital6.5%1.0%6.2×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are three times as likely to go bankruptBoard and capital1.47%0.50%2.9×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are 1.8 times as likely to amend their articles of association NewBoard and capital1.18%0.66%1.8×Confirmed After a capital change, companies are 1.6 times as likely to change directorsBoard and capital24.7%15.8%1.6×Confirmed

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Mar–Jul 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026; event Aug–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 842 cases, 1,030 expected
Factor (95% interval): 0.82× (0.76× to 0.87×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 0.87× (0.81× to 0.93×); all companies 0.92× (0.86× to 0.98×)
Absolute difference: -1.7 percentage points
Size of the groups: active 100,103, economically active 370,446, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata: 121 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that change their share capital are more likely to receive de minimis aid. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/kapitaalwijziging-deminimis-steun-ontvangen

Figures for this finding (CSV)

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