Formation and structure·FindingNo link

Companies involved in a merger or demerger are no more likely to receive de minimis aid

Companies with a merger or demerger were no more likely to have de minimis aid between January and September 2026 than similar companies: 13.9% against 12.0%. Both measurements rule out a link of 1.4 times or more.

De minimis aid between January and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 4,107 companies

1.2×

No meaningful difference from similar companies.

95% interval
1.1× to 1.3×
Companies
4,107
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Mar–Jul 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 202613.9%12.1%1.1×
Measurement 2event Aug–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 202613.8%11.9%1.2×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Merger or demerger672 a month on average
De minimis aid12,126 a month on average

More on merger or demerger

7 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies involved in a merger or demerger are more than eight times as likely to change the purpose in their articlesFormation and structure7.0%0.8%8.4×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are more than five times as likely to change their nameFormation and structure5.1%1.0%5.2×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are almost four times as likely to change their legal formFormation and structure1.99%0.55%3.6×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to change their share capitalFormation and structure6.2%3.0%2.1×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to open a site in another municipalityFormation and structure3.5%1.7%2.1×Confirmed
All findings on merger or demerger

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Mar–Jul 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026; event Aug–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
569 cases, 493 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.2× (1.1× to 1.3×)
Multiple testing
q = 0.055 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p = 0.013
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 1.2× (1.1× to 1.3×); all companies 1.2× (1.1× to 1.3×)
Absolute difference
1.9 percentage points; following 54 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 100,103, economically active 370,446, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
121 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies involved in a merger or demerger are no more likely to receive de minimis aid. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/herstructurering-deminimis-steun-ontvangen

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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