Companies that receive a wage subsidy are less likely to see their workforce shrink sharply
Of the 3,160 companies with a wage subsidy, 3.5% also had a sharp workforce decline in the following financial year, against 4.8% among similar companies.
Sharp workforce decline in the financial year after the event
One measurement · 3,160 companies
After a wage subsidy3.5%
Similar companies4.8%
0.73×
Less often than among similar companies.
- 95% interval
- 0.61× to 0.88×
- Companies
- 3,160
- Measurements
- 1 (second to follow)
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab
Does it hold up?
This finding rests on a single measurement. The second follows with the next financial year.
| Measurement | Period | With the event | Similar | Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial year 2025 | event in 2024, workforce in the 2025 accounts | 3.5% | 4.8% | 0.73× |
Technical note
Methodology- Design
- Retrospective cohort study
- Population studied
- 1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
- Comparison group
- Same sector (NACE section) and headcount band, indirect standardisation
- Cohorts
- event in 2024, workforce in the 2025 accounts
- Observed and expected
- 112 cases, 153 expected
- Factor (95% interval)
- 0.73× (0.61× to 0.88×)
- Multiple testing
- q = 0.0022 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
- Second measurement
- to follow
- Employers only
- n/a
- Data up to
- September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that receive a wage subsidy are less likely to see their workforce shrink sharply. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/subsidie-personeel-personeeldalingAbout Hunch Lab
Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.
Share this finding
A shared link shows the card automatically. The image (1080 x 1350) is made for LinkedIn or Instagram.