Public contracts and support·FindingConfirmed

Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to receive de minimis aid

Of the 4,661 companies with a large public contract, 33.0% also had de minimis aid between January and September 2026, against 21.4% among similar companies.

De minimis aid between January and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 4,661 companies

1.5×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval
1.5× to 1.6×
Companies
4,661
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 202632.2%22.3%1.4×
Measurement 2event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 202633.7%20.7%1.6×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

SectorCompaniesWith the eventSimilarFactor
Professional services1,02330.1%19.9%1.5×
Wholesale and retail99426.5%19.6%1.3×
Construction62349.6%34.3%1.4×
Information and communication49129.1%15.7%1.9×
Manufacturing48341.2%33.7%1.2×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

SizeCompaniesWith the eventComparableFactor
No staff4737.2%4.0%1.8×
Employer, headcount unknown1,34033.8%17.9%1.9×
10 to 4974944.6%32.9%1.4×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Large public contract582 a month on average
De minimis aid12,126 a month on average

More on large public contract

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that win a large public contract are 1.6 times as likely to open a site elsewherePublic contracts and support4.5%2.8%1.6×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to apply for an environmental permitPublic contracts and support12.0%8.0%1.5×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to open a new establishmentPublic contracts and support5.1%3.4%1.5×Confirmed Winning a large public contract leads to more hiringPublic contracts and support7.7%7.0%1.1×Refuted

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
1,537 cases, 999 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.5× (1.5× to 1.6×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 1.5× (1.4× to 1.6×); all companies 1.5× (1.4× to 1.6×)
Absolute difference
11.5 percentage points; following 9 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 120,261, economically active 370,738, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
131 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to receive de minimis aid. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/opdracht-gewonnen-deminimis-steun-ontvangen

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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