Refuted hypotheses·HypothesisRefuted

Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more likely to receive de minimis aid

Companies with a new-build permit application were no more likely to have de minimis aid between January and September 2026 than similar companies: 18.3% against 14.6%. Both measurements rule out a link of 1.4 times or more. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group.

De minimis aid between January and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 5,152 companies

1.3×

No meaningful difference from similar companies.

95% interval
1.2× to 1.3×
Companies
5,152
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 202618.6%14.7%1.3×
Measurement 2event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 202618.0%14.5%1.2×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

New-build permit application531 a month on average
De minimis aid12,126 a month on average

More on new-build permit application

6 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that apply for a new-build permit are four times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating12.3%3.1%4.0×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating6.5%2.0%3.2×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are three times as likely to apply for an environmental permitBuilding and operating21.9%7.5%2.9×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.5 times as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating2.4%1.6%1.5×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.4 times as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating3.2%2.3%1.4×Confirmed
All findings on new-build permit application

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
941 cases, 753 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.3× (1.2× to 1.3×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 1.4× (1.3× to 1.5×); all companies 1.4× (1.3× to 1.5×)
Absolute difference
3.7 percentage points; following 27 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 67,044, economically active 214,185, all 671,780 companies
Strata
88 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more likely to receive de minimis aid. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-nieuwbouw-deminimis-steun-ontvangen

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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