Formation and structure·FindingConfirmed

Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to change their share capital

Of the 4,377 companies with a merger or demerger, 6.2% also had a capital change within nine months, against 3.0% among similar companies.

Capital change within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 4,377 companies

2.1×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval
1.8× to 2.3×
Companies
4,377
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 20266.9%3.1%2.2×
Measurement 2event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 20265.7%2.9%2.0×

When does it happen?

Cumulative share by month after the first event. Half of the cases in the first year occur within 5 months.

0%2%4%6%8%1 month3 mo6 mo9 mo12 mo8.8%with the event5.7%similar

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

SectorCompaniesWith the eventSimilarFactor
Wholesale and retail6715.2%2.9%1.8×
Professional services6624.1%2.3%1.8×
Real estate5747.8%2.9%2.7×
Financial services4916.7%4.9%1.4×
Manufacturing3577.8%4.8%1.6×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

SizeCompaniesWith the eventComparableFactor
No staff2,0754.4%1.8%2.5×
Employer, headcount unknown1,1107.1%3.6%2.0×
10 to 492616.9%4.0%1.7×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Merger or demerger672 a month on average
Capital change1,225 a month on average

More on merger or demerger

7 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies involved in a merger or demerger are more than eight times as likely to change the purpose in their articlesFormation and structure7.0%0.8%8.4×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are more than five times as likely to change their nameFormation and structure5.1%1.0%5.2×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are almost four times as likely to change their legal formFormation and structure1.99%0.55%3.6×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to open a site in another municipalityFormation and structure3.5%1.7%2.1×Confirmed Companies involved in a merger or demerger are 1.8 times as likely to open a new establishmentFormation and structure3.9%2.2%1.8×Confirmed
All findings on merger or demerger

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
273 cases, 132 expected
Factor (95% interval)
2.1× (1.8× to 2.3×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 3.2× (2.8× to 3.6×); all companies 3.8× (3.4× to 4.3×)
Absolute difference
3.2 percentage points; following 31 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 120,261, economically active 370,738, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
131 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies involved in a merger or demerger are twice as likely to change their share capital. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/herstructurering-kapitaalwijziging

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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