Building and operating·FindingConfirmed

Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.9 times as likely to open a new establishment

Of the 7,389 companies with an environmental permit application, 4.6% also had a new establishment between October 2025 and September 2026, against 2.4% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group.

New establishment between October 2025 and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 7,389 companies

After an environmental permit application4.6%

Similar companies2.4%

1.9×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 1.7× to 2.1×
Companies: 7,389
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026	4.4%	2.4%	1.9×
Measurement 2	event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026	4.8%	2.5%	1.9×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Construction	1,159	1.47%	1.13%	1.3×
Agriculture and fishing	1,106	2.3%	1.4%	1.6×
Manufacturing	914	4.2%	1.6%	2.5×
Wholesale and retail	885	8.9%	3.5%	2.6×
Real estate	795	0.63%	0.64%	0.98×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	2,525	1.19%	0.66%	1.8×
Employer, headcount unknown	2,804	6.3%	3.0%	2.1×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Environmental permit884 a month on average

New establishment764 a month on average

More on environmental permit

6 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that apply for an environmental permit are almost four times as likely to apply to buildBuilding and operating14.8%4.0%3.7×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than three times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating9.7%2.8%3.5×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating4.8%1.5%3.3×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than twice as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating3.7%1.7%2.2×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.4 times as likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating22.4%16.6%1.4×Confirmed

All findings on environmental permit

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026; event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 339 cases, 179 expected
Factor (95% interval): 1.9× (1.7× to 2.1×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 2.4× (2.1× to 2.6×); all companies 2.5× (2.3× to 2.8×)
Absolute difference: 2.2 percentage points; following 46 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 61,081, economically active 193,774, all 671,780 companies
Strata: 82 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.9 times as likely to open a new establishment. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-exploitatie-nieuwe-vestiging

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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