Building and operating·FindingConfirmed

Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.5 times as likely to open a site in another municipality

Of the 5,064 companies with a new-build permit application, 2.4% also had a new site in another municipality between October 2025 and September 2026, against 1.6% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group.

Site in another municipality between October 2025 and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 5,064 companies

After a new-build permit application2.4%

Similar companies1.6%

1.5×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 1.3× to 1.8×
Companies: 5,064
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026	2.2%	1.5%	1.5×
Measurement 2	event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026	2.6%	1.7%	1.6×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Real estate	1,063	0.38%	0.51%	0.74×
Construction	713	0.14%	0.88%	0.16×
Agriculture and fishing	477	1.05%	1.05%	0.99×
Manufacturing	430	1.16%	1.73%	0.67×
Professional services	416	1.68%	1.32%	1.3×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	2,370	0.38%	0.31%	1.2×
Employer, headcount unknown	1,576	3.9%	2.5%	1.6×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

New-build permit application531 a month on average

Site in another municipality476 a month on average

More on new-build permit application

6 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that apply for a new-build permit are four times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating12.3%3.1%4.0×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating6.5%2.0%3.2×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are three times as likely to apply for an environmental permitBuilding and operating21.9%7.5%2.9×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.4 times as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating3.2%2.3%1.4×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating18.3%14.6%1.3×Refuted

All findings on new-build permit application

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026; event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 123 cases, 81 expected
Factor (95% interval): 1.5× (1.3× to 1.8×)
Multiple testing: q = 0.018 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 2.2× (1.8× to 2.6×); all companies 2.3× (2.0× to 2.8×)
Absolute difference: 0.8 percentage points; following 121 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 61,081, economically active 193,774, all 671,780 companies
Strata: 82 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.5 times as likely to open a site in another municipality. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-nieuwbouw-vestiging-elders

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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