Board and capital·FindingConfirmed

Companies that change their share capital are three times as likely to go bankrupt

Of the 13,712 companies with a capital change, 1.47% also had a bankruptcy between June and September 2026, against 0.50% among similar companies.

Bankruptcy between June and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 13,712 companies

2.9×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval
2.6× to 3.4×
Companies
13,712
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Jun–Nov 2025, outcome Jun–Sep 20261.59%0.59%2.7×
Measurement 2event Dec 2025–May 2026, outcome Jun–Sep 20261.36%0.42%3.3×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

SectorCompaniesWith the eventSimilarFactor
Wholesale and retail1,9751.22%0.52%2.4×
Transport and logistics1,3061.30%0.80%1.6×
Construction1,2071.08%0.56%1.9×
Hospitality1,2041.99%1.17%1.7×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

SizeCompaniesWith the eventComparableFactor
No staff7,7231.77%0.57%3.1×
Employer, headcount unknown4,1981.29%0.48%2.7×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Capital change1,225 a month on average

More on capital change

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that change their share capital are more than six times as likely to have their registered address struck offBoard and capital6.5%1.0%6.2×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are 1.8 times as likely to amend their articles of association NewBoard and capital1.18%0.66%1.8×Confirmed After a capital change, companies are 1.6 times as likely to change directorsBoard and capital24.7%15.8%1.6×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are more likely to receive de minimis aidBoard and capital7.7%9.4%0.82×Refuted

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Jun–Nov 2025, outcome Jun–Sep 2026; event Dec 2025–May 2026, outcome Jun–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
201 cases, 68 expected
Factor (95% interval)
2.9× (2.6× to 3.4×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 2.6× (2.3× to 3.0×); all companies 2.5× (2.2× to 2.9×)
Absolute difference
1.0 percentage points; following 103 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 154,604, economically active 435,817, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
151 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that change their share capital are three times as likely to go bankrupt. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/kapitaalwijziging-faillissement

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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