Building and operating·FindingConfirmed

Companies that file another type of planning application are more than four times as likely to apply for a new-build permit

Of the 3,824 companies with another type of planning application, 17.7% also had a new-build permit application within nine months, against 4.3% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group. Measured year by year, the link held in every year since 2018.

New-build permit application within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 3,824 companies

After another type of planning application17.7%

Similar companies4.3%

4.1×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 3.8× to 4.5×
Companies: 3,824
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026	17.4%	4.5%	3.9×
Measurement 2	event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	18.0%	4.1%	4.4×

Also measured year by year, since 2018

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
2018	application in 2018, outcome the following year	14.7%	1.6%	9.3×
2019	application in 2019, outcome the following year	15.8%	1.7%	9.2×
2020	application in 2020, outcome the following year	16.8%	2.1%	8.1×
2021	application in 2021, outcome the following year	17.1%	1.9%	9.0×
2022	application in 2022, outcome the following year	18.5%	2.1%	8.7×
2023	application in 2023, outcome the following year	20.1%	2.2%	9.2×
2024	application in 2024, outcome the following year	18.0%	2.2%	8.1×

When does it happen?

Cumulative share by month after the first event. Half of the cases in the first year occur within 4 months.

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Real estate	862	20.1%	7.0%	2.8×
Construction	546	30.8%	4.8%	6.5×
Professional services	369	10.3%	1.4%	7.4×
Wholesale and retail	293	9.6%	1.8%	5.4×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	1,843	10.9%	3.1%	3.5×
Employer, headcount unknown	1,257	19.4%	4.5%	4.3×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Other planning application389 a month on average

New-build permit application531 a month on average

More on other planning application

6 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that file another type of planning application are four times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating8.5%2.1%4.0×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are three times as likely to apply for an environmental permitBuilding and operating19.4%6.6%2.9×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are almost three times as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating3.9%1.5%2.6×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are more than twice as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating4.9%2.2%2.3×Confirmed Companies that file another type of planning application are less likely to grow their workforce strongly NewBuilding and operating3.5%6.3%0.55×Provisional

All findings on other planning application

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 677 cases, 164 expected
Factor (95% interval): 4.1× (3.8× to 4.5×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 5.8× (5.4× to 6.3×); all companies 8.8× (8.2× to 9.5×)
Absolute difference: 13.4 percentage points; following 7 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 67,044, economically active 214,185, all 671,780 companies
Strata: 88 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that file another type of planning application are more than four times as likely to apply for a new-build permit. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-overig-vg-nieuwbouw

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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