Formation and structure·FindingLess oftenNew

Newly incorporated companies are less likely to apply for a new-build permit

Of the 31,192 companies with incorporation, 0.51% also had a new-build permit application within nine months, against 1.09% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group.

New-build permit application within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 31,192 companies

0.46×

Less often than among similar companies.

95% interval
0.40× to 0.54×
Companies
31,192
Measurements
2, independent

Caveat Read the title as an association, not as a cause. The source covers only part of the companies. The absolute difference is small, even though the factor is high. The outcome may be spotted more often at companies with the event. Measured within one region only.

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 20260.58%1.02%0.56×
Measurement 2event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 20260.46%1.14%0.40×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Incorporation4,779 a month on average
New-build permit application531 a month on average

More on incorporation

9 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Newly incorporated companies are less likely to move their registered officeFormation and structure0.3%4.0%0.07×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to apply for a renovation or extension permit NewFormation and structure0.23%0.79%0.30×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to change their legal formFormation and structure0.06%0.16%0.36×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to file another type of planning application NewFormation and structure0.32%0.83%0.39×Less often Newly incorporated companies are less likely to have their registered address struck offFormation and structure0.72%1.66%0.43×Less often
All findings on incorporation

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
158 cases, 340 expected
Factor (95% interval)
0.46× (0.40× to 0.54×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 0.63× (0.54× to 0.74×); all companies 1.7× (1.5× to 2.0×)
Absolute difference
-0.6 percentage points
Size of the groups
active 67,044, economically active 214,185, all 671,780 companies
Strata
88 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Review
Tests passed: stability across measurements, excluding cases within 60 days, excluding the largest stratum, overlap of definitions, E-value, by stratum. Not passed: three comparison groups, placebo event.
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Newly incorporated companies are less likely to apply for a new-build permit. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/oprichting-vg-nieuwbouw

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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