Refuted hypotheses·HypothesisRefuted

Winning a large public contract leads to more hiring

Companies with a large public contract were no more likely to have strong workforce growth in the following financial year than similar companies: 7.7% against 7.0%. The measurement rules out a link of 1.4 times or more.

Strong workforce growth in the financial year after the event

One measurement · 1,745 companies

1.1×

No meaningful difference from similar companies.

95% interval
0.93× to 1.3×
Companies
1,745
Measurements
1 (second to follow)
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

This finding rests on a single measurement. The second follows with the next financial year.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Financial year 2025event in 2024, workforce in the 2025 accounts7.7%7.0%1.1×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Large public contract582 a month on average

More on large public contract

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that win a large public contract are 1.6 times as likely to open a site elsewherePublic contracts and support4.5%2.8%1.6×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to receive de minimis aidPublic contracts and support33.0%21.4%1.5×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to apply for an environmental permitPublic contracts and support12.0%8.0%1.5×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to open a new establishmentPublic contracts and support5.1%3.4%1.5×Confirmed

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Same sector (NACE section) and headcount band, indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event in 2024, workforce in the 2025 accounts
Observed and expected
135 cases, 123 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.1× (0.93× to 1.3×)
Multiple testing
q = 0.46 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
to follow
Employers only
n/a
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Winning a large public contract leads to more hiring. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/opdracht-gewonnen-personeelgroei

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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