Building and operating·FindingConfirmed

Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.4 times as likely to open a new establishment

Of the 5,064 companies with a new-build permit application, 3.2% also had a new establishment between October 2025 and September 2026, against 2.3% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group.

New establishment between October 2025 and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 5,064 companies

After a new-build permit application3.2%

Similar companies2.3%

1.4×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 1.2× to 1.6×
Companies: 5,064
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026	3.1%	2.2%	1.4×
Measurement 2	event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026	3.2%	2.3%	1.4×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Real estate	1,063	0.38%	0.66%	0.57×
Construction	713	0.70%	1.22%	0.58×
Agriculture and fishing	477	1.68%	1.96%	0.86×
Manufacturing	430	1.9%	2.3%	0.82×
Professional services	416	2.6%	1.6%	1.6×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	2,370	0.63%	0.58%	1.1×
Employer, headcount unknown	1,576	4.9%	3.4%	1.5×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

New-build permit application531 a month on average

New establishment764 a month on average

More on new-build permit application

6 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that apply for a new-build permit are four times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating12.3%3.1%4.0×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating6.5%2.0%3.2×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are three times as likely to apply for an environmental permitBuilding and operating21.9%7.5%2.9×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.5 times as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating2.4%1.6%1.5×Confirmed Companies that apply for a new-build permit are more likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating18.3%14.6%1.3×Refuted

All findings on new-build permit application

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026; event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 160 cases, 115 expected
Factor (95% interval): 1.4× (1.2× to 1.6×)
Multiple testing: q = 0.011 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p = 0.0078
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 1.9× (1.6× to 2.2×); all companies 2.0× (1.7× to 2.4×)
Absolute difference: 0.9 percentage points; following 113 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 61,081, economically active 193,774, all 671,780 companies
Strata: 82 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that apply for a new-build permit are 1.4 times as likely to open a new establishment. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-nieuwbouw-nieuwe-vestiging

Figures for this finding (CSV)

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Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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