Location·FindingConfirmed

Companies that move their registered office are twice as likely to go bankrupt

Of the 42,168 companies with a move of the registered office, 0.83% also had a bankruptcy between June and September 2026, against 0.41% among similar companies.

Bankruptcy between June and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 42,168 companies

2.0×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval
1.8× to 2.3×
Companies
42,168
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Jun–Nov 2025, outcome Jun–Sep 20260.85%0.48%1.8×
Measurement 2event Dec 2025–May 2026, outcome Jun–Sep 20260.80%0.34%2.4×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

SectorCompaniesWith the eventSimilarFactor
Professional services7,1330.18%0.12%1.5×
Construction4,7761.01%0.55%1.8×
Wholesale and retail4,3431.36%0.58%2.3×
Information and communication2,6930.37%0.33%1.1×
Support services2,1620.69%0.34%2.0×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

SizeCompaniesWith the eventComparableFactor
No staff32,2070.77%0.42%1.8×
Employer, headcount unknown7,9121.01%0.40%2.6×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Registered office move3,570 a month on average

More on registered office move

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that move their registered office are less likely to go through a merger or demergerLocation0.33%1.48%0.22×Less often Companies that move their registered office are almost three times as likely to be dissolved or put into liquidationLocation1.35%0.50%2.7×Confirmed Companies that move their registered office are no more likely to change their nameLocation0.86%0.79%1.1×No link Companies that move their registered office are no more likely to change the purpose in their articlesLocation0.78%0.77%1.0×No link

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Jun–Nov 2025, outcome Jun–Sep 2026; event Dec 2025–May 2026, outcome Jun–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
349 cases, 171 expected
Factor (95% interval)
2.0× (1.8× to 2.3×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 1.7× (1.6× to 1.9×); all companies 2.0× (1.8× to 2.2×)
Absolute difference
0.4 percentage points; following 237 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 154,604, economically active 435,817, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
151 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that move their registered office are twice as likely to go bankrupt. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/zetelverplaatsing-faillissement

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

About the Lab and the data →What Hunch does →