Board and capital·FindingConfirmed

Companies that change directors are 1.6 times as likely to change their share capital

Of the 86,190 companies with a board change, 3.7% also had a capital change within nine months, against 2.3% among similar companies.

Capital change within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 86,190 companies

After a board change3.7%

Similar companies2.3%

1.6×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 1.5× to 1.6×
Companies: 86,190
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026	3.9%	2.3%	1.7×
Measurement 2	event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	3.5%	2.3%	1.5×

When does it happen?

Cumulative share by month after the first event. Half of the cases in the first year occur within 6 months.

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Wholesale and retail	10,156	3.9%	2.9%	1.4×
Professional services	8,169	2.9%	2.2%	1.3×
Construction	5,662	3.2%	1.6%	2.0×
Real estate	4,963	3.7%	2.5%	1.5×
Manufacturing	4,812	5.2%	4.0%	1.3×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	47,502	3.0%	1.3%	2.3×
Employer, headcount unknown	23,146	4.5%	3.1%	1.5×
1 to 4	808	3.5%	2.8%	1.2×
5 to 9	473	2.7%	5.2%	0.53×
10 to 49	2,994	3.7%	4.9%	0.76×
50 to 249	718	6.3%	5.2%	1.2×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Board change8,802 a month on average

Capital change1,225 a month on average

More on board change

5 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that change directors are less likely to move their registered officeBoard and capital1.1%3.1%0.36×Less often Companies that change directors are almost three times as likely to be dissolved or put into liquidation NewBoard and capital0.99%0.39%2.6×Confirmed Companies that change directors are 1.8 times as likely to amend their articles of association NewBoard and capital1.05%0.59%1.8×Confirmed Companies that change directors are 1.4 times as likely to go bankruptBoard and capital0.56%0.39%1.4×Confirmed Companies that change directors are no more likely to change their nameBoard and capital1.01%1.00%1.0×No link

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 3,156 cases, 1,995 expected
Factor (95% interval): 1.6× (1.5× to 1.6×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 2.4× (2.3× to 2.4×); all companies 3.0× (2.9× to 3.1×)
Absolute difference: 1.3 percentage points; following 74 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 120,261, economically active 370,738, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata: 131 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that change directors are 1.6 times as likely to change their share capital. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/bestuurswijziging-kapitaalwijziging

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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