Building and operating·FindingConfirmed

Companies that apply for an environmental permit are almost four times as likely to apply to build

Of the 8,081 companies with an environmental permit application, 14.8% also had a new-build permit application within nine months, against 4.0% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group. Measured year by year, the link held in every year since 2018.

New-build permit application within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 8,081 companies

After an environmental permit application14.8%

Similar companies4.0%

3.7×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 3.5× to 3.9×
Companies: 8,081
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026	16.1%	4.1%	3.9×
Measurement 2	event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	13.7%	3.9%	3.5×

Also measured year by year, since 2018

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
2018	application in 2018, outcome the following year	13.0%	6.0%	2.2×
2019	application in 2019, outcome the following year	13.7%	6.0%	2.3×
2020	application in 2020, outcome the following year	14.2%	5.7%	2.5×
2021	application in 2021, outcome the following year	14.0%	5.5%	2.5×
2022	application in 2022, outcome the following year	15.5%	5.2%	3.0×
2023	application in 2023, outcome the following year	17.0%	5.3%	3.2×
2024	application in 2024, outcome the following year	16.8%	6.2%	2.7×

When does it happen?

Cumulative share by month after the first event. Half of the cases in the first year occur within 5 months.

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Agriculture and fishing	1,626	8.5%	5.0%	1.7×
Construction	1,164	19.4%	5.1%	3.8×
Manufacturing	1,017	13.4%	3.8%	3.5×
Wholesale and retail	936	9.4%	1.3%	7.1×
Real estate	817	24.5%	6.4%	3.8×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	3,040	11.4%	3.3%	3.5×
Employer, headcount unknown	3,004	14.2%	3.7%	3.9×
10 to 49	313	12.5%	4.6%	2.7×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Environmental permit884 a month on average

New-build permit application531 a month on average

More on environmental permit

6 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than three times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating9.7%2.8%3.5×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating4.8%1.5%3.3×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than twice as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating3.7%1.7%2.2×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.9 times as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating4.6%2.4%1.9×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.4 times as likely to receive de minimis aidBuilding and operating22.4%16.6%1.4×Confirmed

All findings on environmental permit

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 1,194 cases, 323 expected
Factor (95% interval): 3.7× (3.5× to 3.9×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 5.0× (4.7× to 5.2×); all companies 6.7× (6.3× to 7.1×)
Absolute difference: 10.8 percentage points; following 9 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 67,044, economically active 214,185, all 671,780 companies
Strata: 88 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that apply for an environmental permit are almost four times as likely to apply to build. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-exploitatie-vg-nieuwbouw

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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