Building and operating·FindingConfirmed

Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.4 times as likely to receive de minimis aid

Of the 8,081 companies with an environmental permit application, 22.4% also had de minimis aid between January and September 2026, against 16.6% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group.

De minimis aid between January and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 8,081 companies

After an environmental permit application22.4%

Similar companies16.6%

1.4×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 1.3× to 1.4×
Companies: 8,081
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	23.5%	16.9%	1.4×
Measurement 2	event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	21.5%	16.3%	1.3×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Agriculture and fishing	1,626	5.8%	7.2%	0.81×
Construction	1,164	43.3%	29.7%	1.5×
Manufacturing	1,017	39.6%	32.1%	1.2×
Wholesale and retail	936	25.3%	16.0%	1.6×
Real estate	817	6.5%	4.2%	1.5×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	3,040	4.7%	3.8%	1.2×
Employer, headcount unknown	3,004	25.1%	17.2%	1.5×
10 to 49	313	56.9%	46.7%	1.2×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Environmental permit884 a month on average

De minimis aid12,126 a month on average

More on environmental permit

6 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that apply for an environmental permit are almost four times as likely to apply to buildBuilding and operating14.8%4.0%3.7×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than three times as likely to file another type of planning applicationBuilding and operating9.7%2.8%3.5×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than three times as likely to apply for a renovation or extension permitBuilding and operating4.8%1.5%3.3×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are more than twice as likely to open a site in another municipalityBuilding and operating3.7%1.7%2.2×Confirmed Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.9 times as likely to open a new establishmentBuilding and operating4.6%2.4%1.9×Confirmed

All findings on environmental permit

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 1,810 cases, 1,341 expected
Factor (95% interval): 1.4× (1.3× to 1.4×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 1.4× (1.4× to 1.5×); all companies 1.4× (1.4× to 1.5×)
Absolute difference: 5.8 percentage points; following 17 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 67,044, economically active 214,185, all 671,780 companies
Strata: 88 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that apply for an environmental permit are 1.4 times as likely to receive de minimis aid. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/vg-exploitatie-deminimis-steun-ontvangen

Figures for this finding (CSV)

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Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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