Board and capital·FindingConfirmed

After a capital change, companies are 1.6 times as likely to change directors

Of the 11,570 companies with a capital change, 24.7% also had a board change within nine months, against 15.8% among similar companies.

Board change within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 11,570 companies

1.6×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval
1.5× to 1.6×
Companies
11,570
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 202624.6%14.4%1.7×
Measurement 2event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 202624.7%16.9%1.5×

When does it happen?

Cumulative share by month after the first event. Half of the cases in the first year occur within 5 months.

0%10%20%30%1 month3 mo6 mo9 mo12 mo30.0%with the event31.3%similar

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

SectorCompaniesWith the eventSimilarFactor
Wholesale and retail1,55321.9%16.2%1.4×
Transport and logistics1,11543.1%24.4%1.8×
Construction1,01918.3%8.8%2.1×
Hospitality99322.1%13.7%1.6×
Professional services98921.6%15.6%1.4×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

SizeCompaniesWith the eventComparableFactor
No staff6,63819.5%9.6%2.0×
Employer, headcount unknown3,45427.7%19.5%1.4×
10 to 4928144.5%35.9%1.2×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Capital change1,225 a month on average
Board change8,802 a month on average

More on capital change

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that change their share capital are more than six times as likely to have their registered address struck offBoard and capital6.5%1.0%6.2×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are three times as likely to go bankruptBoard and capital1.47%0.50%2.9×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are 1.8 times as likely to amend their articles of association NewBoard and capital1.18%0.66%1.8×Confirmed Companies that change their share capital are more likely to receive de minimis aidBoard and capital7.7%9.4%0.82×Refuted

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
2,856 cases, 1,833 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.6× (1.5× to 1.6×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 2.0× (2.0× to 2.1×); all companies 2.5× (2.4× to 2.6×)
Absolute difference
8.8 percentage points; following 11 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 120,261, economically active 370,738, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
131 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). After a capital change, companies are 1.6 times as likely to change directors. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/kapitaalwijziging-bestuurswijziging

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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