Formation and structure·FindingLess oftenNew

Companies that change their legal form are less likely to go through a merger or demerger

Of the 8,597 companies with a change of legal form, 0.63% also had a merger or demerger within nine months, against 1.97% among similar companies.

Merger or demerger within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 8,597 companies

0.32×

Less often than among similar companies.

95% interval
0.24× to 0.42×
Companies
8,597
Measurements
2, independent

Caveat Read the title as an association, not as a cause. The source covers only part of the companies. A common cause, such as growth, a takeover or a restructuring, may explain both. The absolute difference is small, even though the factor is high.

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 20260.8%2.0%0.39×
Measurement 2event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 20260.45%1.89%0.24×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Change of legal form601 a month on average
Merger or demerger672 a month on average

More on change of legal form

1 other finding

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that change their legal form are less likely to move their registered officeFormation and structure1.2%2.4%0.52×Less often

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
54 cases, 169 expected
Factor (95% interval)
0.32× (0.24× to 0.42×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 0.57× (0.43× to 0.74×); all companies 1.4× (1.1× to 1.9×)
Absolute difference
-1.3 percentage points
Size of the groups
active 120,261, economically active 370,738, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
131 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Review
Tests passed: stability across measurements, excluding cases within 60 days, overlap of definitions, E-value, by stratum, negative control (outcome before the event). Not passed: three comparison groups.
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that change their legal form are less likely to go through a merger or demerger. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/omvorming-herstructurering

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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