Public contracts and support·FindingConfirmed

Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to apply for an environmental permit

Of the 2,874 companies with a large public contract, 12.0% also had an environmental permit application within nine months, against 8.0% among similar companies. The source only covers 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders; the comparison stays within that group.

Environmental permit within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 2,874 companies

After a large public contract12.0%

Similar companies8.0%

1.5×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 1.4× to 1.7×
Companies: 2,874
Measurements: 2, independent

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study within 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026	12.5%	8.6%	1.4×
Measurement 2	event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	11.6%	7.5%	1.6×

When does it happen?

Cumulative share by month after the first event. Half of the cases in the first year occur within 4 months.

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Wholesale and retail	680	7.2%	6.1%	1.2×
Professional services	559	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×
Construction	397	37.8%	16.6%	2.3×
Manufacturing	312	11.2%	13.0%	0.86×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
Employer, headcount unknown	1,092	11.0%	6.6%	1.7×
10 to 49	246	9.8%	10.1%	0.97×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Large public contract582 a month on average

Environmental permit884 a month on average

More on large public contract

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that win a large public contract are 1.6 times as likely to open a site elsewherePublic contracts and support4.5%2.8%1.6×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to receive de minimis aidPublic contracts and support33.0%21.4%1.5×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to open a new establishmentPublic contracts and support5.1%3.4%1.5×Confirmed Winning a large public contract leads to more hiringPublic contracts and support7.7%7.0%1.1×Refuted

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 671,780 companies with their registered office in Flanders
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Jan–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 346 cases, 230 expected
Factor (95% interval): 1.5× (1.4× to 1.7×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 2.4× (2.1× to 2.6×); all companies 2.3× (2.1× to 2.6×)
Absolute difference: 4.0 percentage points; following 25 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 67,044, economically active 214,185, all 671,780 companies
Strata: 88 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to apply for an environmental permit. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/opdracht-gewonnen-vg-exploitatie

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

About the Lab and the data →What Hunch does →