Public contracts and support·FindingConfirmed

Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to open a new establishment

Of the 4,462 companies with a large public contract, 5.1% also had a new establishment between October 2025 and September 2026, against 3.4% among similar companies.

New establishment between October 2025 and September 2026

Both measurements combined · 4,462 companies

1.5×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval
1.3× to 1.7×
Companies
4,462
Measurements
2, independent
Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

MeasurementPeriodWith the eventSimilarFactor
Measurement 1event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 20265.0%3.4%1.5×
Measurement 2event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 20265.3%3.5%1.5×

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

SectorCompaniesWith the eventSimilarFactor
Professional services9913.4%2.7%1.3×
Wholesale and retail9675.8%5.6%1.0×
Construction6023.0%1.6%1.8×
Manufacturing4593.9%2.5%1.6×
Information and communication4472.2%1.7%1.3×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

SizeCompaniesWith the eventComparableFactor
Employer, headcount unknown1,2546.1%3.2%1.9×
10 to 496222.6%2.9%0.87×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Large public contract582 a month on average
New establishment764 a month on average

More on large public contract

4 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult
Companies that win a large public contract are 1.6 times as likely to open a site elsewherePublic contracts and support4.5%2.8%1.6×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to receive de minimis aidPublic contracts and support33.0%21.4%1.5×Confirmed Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to apply for an environmental permitPublic contracts and support12.0%8.0%1.5×Confirmed Winning a large public contract leads to more hiringPublic contracts and support7.7%7.0%1.1×Refuted

Technical note

Methodology
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Population studied
1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group
Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts
event Oct 2024–Mar 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026; event Apr–Sep 2025, outcome Oct 2025–Sep 2026
Observed and expected
228 cases, 153 expected
Factor (95% interval)
1.5× (1.3× to 1.7×)
Multiple testing
q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement
p < 0.001
Other comparison groups
economically active companies 1.8× (1.6× to 2.1×); all companies 1.8× (1.6× to 2.1×)
Absolute difference
1.7 percentage points; following 60 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups
active 111,787, economically active 332,738, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata
125 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Data up to
September 2026
Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).
Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that win a large public contract are 1.5 times as likely to open a new establishment. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/opdracht-gewonnen-nieuwe-vestiging

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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