Board and capital·FindingConfirmedNew

Companies that change directors are almost three times as likely to be dissolved or put into liquidation

Of the 86,190 companies with a board change, 0.99% also had a dissolution or liquidation within nine months, against 0.39% among similar companies.

Dissolution or liquidation within nine months of the event

Both measurements combined · 86,190 companies

After a board change0.99%

Similar companies0.39%

2.6×

as often as among similar companies.

95% interval: 2.4× to 2.7×
Companies: 86,190
Measurements: 2, independent

Caveat A common cause, such as growth, a takeover or a restructuring, may explain both. The absolute difference is small, even though the factor is high. The source covers only part of the companies. Read the title as an association, not as a cause.

Source: Hunch Lab, cohort study of 1,141,228 Belgian companies. Compared within sector, size and age, with companies active in the same period.hunchleads.com/en/lab

Does it hold up?

Each measurement uses different companies and a different period. A link only counts if it shows up in both.

Measurement	Period	With the event	Similar	Factor
Measurement 1	event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026	0.86%	0.37%	2.3×
Measurement 2	event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026	1.08%	0.39%	2.7×

When does it happen?

Cumulative share by month after the first event. Half of the cases in the first year occur within 8 months.

By sector

The sectors with the most companies in the test, both measurements combined.

Sector	Companies	With the event	Similar	Factor
Wholesale and retail	10,156	0.09%	0.13%	0.68×
Manufacturing	4,812	0.06%	0.19%	0.32×
Hospitality	4,691	0.15%	0.18%	0.81×

By size class

Full-time equivalents from the latest annual accounts. Employer: staff registered with the NSSO, headcount unknown.

Size	Companies	With the event	Comparable	Factor
No staff	47,502	1.75%	0.64%	2.7×
Employer, headcount unknown	23,146	0.03%	0.07%	0.45×

How often does this happen?

Belgian companies with the event, per month, over the last twelve complete months.

Board change8,802 a month on average

Dissolution or liquidation1,614 a month on average

More on board change

5 other findings

FindingWith the eventSimilarFactorResult

Companies that change directors are less likely to move their registered officeBoard and capital1.1%3.1%0.36×Less often Companies that change directors are 1.8 times as likely to amend their articles of association NewBoard and capital1.05%0.59%1.8×Confirmed Companies that change directors are 1.6 times as likely to change their share capitalBoard and capital3.7%2.3%1.6×Confirmed Companies that change directors are 1.4 times as likely to go bankruptBoard and capital0.56%0.39%1.4×Confirmed Companies that change directors are no more likely to change their nameBoard and capital1.01%1.00%1.0×No link

Technical note

Methodology

Design: Retrospective cohort study
Population studied: 1,141,228 Belgian companies (the full business register)
Comparison group: Companies without the event that had another publication or event in the same entry period (active group), from the same stratum: NACE section, size class and age class; indirect standardisation
Cohorts: event Feb–Jun 2025, outcome Jul 2025–Mar 2026; event Jul–Dec 2025, outcome Jan–Sep 2026
Observed and expected: 854 cases, 332 expected
Factor (95% interval): 2.6× (2.4× to 2.7×)
Multiple testing: q < 0.001 (Benjamini-Hochberg)
Second measurement: p < 0.001
Other comparison groups: economically active companies 2.8× (2.6× to 3.0×); all companies 0.92× (0.86× to 0.98×)
Absolute difference: 0.6 percentage points; following 165 companies with the event yields one extra case
Size of the groups: active 120,261, economically active 370,738, all 1,141,228 companies
Strata: 131 strata of at least 300 companies (section × size × age; smaller strata merged)
Review: Tests passed: shifted follow-up period, excluding cases within 60 days, negative control (outcome before the event), overlap of definitions, stability across measurements, E-value. Not passed: placebo event, by stratum.
Data up to: September 2026

Cite this findingFree to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0).

Hunch Lab (2026). Companies that change directors are almost three times as likely to be dissolved or put into liquidation. Data up to September 2026. https://hunchleads.com/en/lab/bestuurswijziging-ontbinding-of-vereffening

Figures for this finding (CSV)

About Hunch Lab

Hunch Lab is the research programme of Hunch. Every finding is free to reuse with attribution. Questions are welcome.

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